Is dementia incidence declining?

Objective: To investigate whether dementia incidence has changed over the last 2 decades.

Results: In the 1990 subcohort (25,696 person-years), 286 persons developed dementia, and in the 2000 subcohort (8,384 person-years), 49 persons. Age-adjusted dementia incidence rates were consistently, yet nonsignificantly, lower in the 2000 subcohort in all strata, reaching borderline significance in the overall analysis (incidence rate ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-1.02). Mortality rates were also lower in the 2000 subcohort (rate ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.52-0.77). The prevalence of hypertension and obesity significantly increased between 1990 and 2000. This was paralleled by a strong increase in use of antithrombotics and lipid-lowering drugs. Participants in 2005-2006 had larger total brain volumes (p < 0.001) and less cerebral small vessel disease (although nonsignificant in men) than participants in 1995-1996.

Conclusions: Although the differences in dementia incidence were nonsignificant, our study suggests that dementia incidence has decreased between 1990 and 2005.