The odds of match fixing

Even though knowledge and awareness about betting-related match fixing has been steadily growing in recent years, a number of misconceptions still abound. The persistence of these misconceptions is compounded by the fact that systematic empirical evidence about bettingrelated match fixing is not readily available. Media reports and interested stakeholders often suggest that certain types of sports bets significantly increase the risks of match fixing occurring. These concerns also surface in policy discussions at both the national and European level. Frequently calls are made to prohibit the supply of “risky” sports bets as a means to preserve the integrity of sports competitions. In a first-ever attempt to assess the integrity risks associated with certain types of sports bets on the basis of quantitative empirical evidence, the researchers uniquely obtained access to key statistics from Sportradar’s Fraud Detection System (FDS). A five-year dataset of football matches worldwide, which the FDS identified as likely to have been targeted by match fixers, enabled them to observe patterns and correlations with certain types of sports bets. In addition, representative samples of football bets placed with sports betting operator Betfair were collected and analysed. The results presented in this report, which challenge several claims about the alleged risks generated by certain types of sports bets, hope to inform policy makers about the costeffectiveness of imposing limits on the regulated sports betting offer.